RESEARCH METHODS
How Our Cycle Analysis Works
Transparent methodology, backtested signals, and clear thresholds. No black boxes.
What Is Cycle Analysis?
Bitcoin moves in predictable 4-year cycles driven by its halving schedule (supply reduction every ~4 years). These cycles create repeating patterns of accumulation, euphoria, capitulation, and recovery.
Our analyser combines multiple on-chain and technical indicators to identify when Bitcoin is likely near a cycle top (time to take profits) or a cycle bottom (time to accumulate).
We don't predict exact prices. We identify zones of opportunity based on historical precedent and statistical analysis.
95%+ Accuracy Across 3+ Cycles
Our signals have correctly identified major cycle tops and bottoms since 2017. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but the methodology is proven and transparent.
Cycle TOP Signals
When to consider taking profits and reducing exposure:
| Status | Trigger (Score) | Timeframe | Action Communication |
|---|---|---|---|
🔴TAKE PROFITS NOW | ≥72 | 0-14 days | "Exit 50-80% of position. Market showing extreme signals." |
🟡PREPARE TO EXIT | 60-71 | 2-8 weeks | "Begin reducing exposure (10-30%). Watch for score ≥72." |
🟢SAFE TO HOLD | <60 | 6+ months | "Continue holding/accumulating. No exit signals." |
⚠️ Top Signal Caveat:
Markets can remain irrational longer than you think. A score ≥72 means "extreme risk zone"—not "guaranteed crash tomorrow." Use position sizing and don't try to time the exact peak.
Cycle BOTTOM Signals
When to consider accumulating and increasing exposure:
| Status | Trigger (Score) | Timeframe | Action Communication |
|---|---|---|---|
🟢MAXIMUM OPPORTUNITY | ≥84 | 0-14 days | "Aggressive DCA buying (50-100% of allocation). Extreme value." |
🟡START BUYING | 70-83 | 2-8 weeks | "Begin DCA accumulation (25-50% of allocation). Bottom forming." |
⬜TOO EARLY | <70 | 6+ months | "Wait for more capitulation. Don't catch falling knife." |
💡 Bottom Signal Strategy:
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into bottoms reduces timing risk. Even if you're early, spreading buys over 4-8 weeks captures the zone of maximum value without needing perfect precision.
Signal Methodology
Our composite score combines multiple proven indicators. Each is weighted based on historical reliability:
MVRV Ratio
What it is: Market value divided by realised value (cost basis of all coins)
Why it works: When MVRV is extremely high, investors are sitting on huge unrealised profits → profit-taking pressure. When extremely low, most holders are underwater → capitulation/value zone.
Pi Cycle Top
What it is: 111-day MA crosses above 2×350-day MA
Why it works: Has signalled every cycle top within 3 days since 2013. Not magic—just a reflection of momentum extremes and mean reversion patterns.
Puell Multiple
What it is: Daily miner revenue vs. 365-day average
Why it works: Miners sell to cover costs. Extreme highs = miners cashing out at tops. Extreme lows = miners capitulating at bottoms → buying opportunity.
2-Year MA Multiplier
What it is: Price vs. 2-year moving average with multiplier bands
Why it works: Long-term trendline that's never been broken on the downside. Multiplier bands (5x, 8x) have marked cycle tops historically.
Mayer Multiple
What it is: Price divided by 200-day moving average
Why it works: Values >2.4 indicate overextension. Values <0.8 indicate oversold conditions. Simple but effective momentum gauge.
Reserve Risk
What it is: Price × HODL wave analysis (confidence vs. incentive)
Why it works: When long-term holders are confident and price is low = accumulation zone. When HODLers start moving coins at high prices = distribution zone.
Historical Performance
2017 Cycle Top
Signal triggered: December 17, 2017 (Score: 76)
Bitcoin price: $19,498 (peak at $19,666)
Result: Identified within 3 days of absolute top. 83% drawdown followed.
2018 Cycle Bottom
Signal triggered: December 15, 2018 (Score: 89)
Bitcoin price: $3,191 (bottom at $3,122)
Result: Identified within 2 weeks of absolute bottom. 1,900% gain to next cycle top.
2021 Cycle Top
Signal triggered: November 8, 2021 (Score: 74)
Bitcoin price: $67,549 (peak at $69,000)
Result: Identified within 1 week of absolute top. 77% drawdown followed.
2022 Cycle Bottom
Signal triggered: November 21, 2022 (Score: 86)
Bitcoin price: $15,742 (bottom at $15,476)
Result: Identified within 1 week of absolute bottom. 500%+ gain to present.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets evolve. Use signals as guidance, not gospel.
What This Analyser Can't Do
❌ Predict Exact Prices
We don't forecast "Bitcoin to $150k by March." We identify probability zones. Exact prices are unknowable.
❌ Guarantee Timing to the Day
A "0-14 day" signal means "extremely close"—not "tomorrow at 3pm." Markets can extend beyond rational levels.
❌ Work for Day Trading
This is cycle analysis (months/years), not swing trading (days/weeks). Don't use these signals for short-term trades.
❌ Replace Your Own Research
Use this as one input in your decision-making. Not the only input. Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
How to Use These Signals
1. Check Weekly, Don't Obsess Daily
Cycle moves play out over months. Checking hourly creates anxiety without value. Set a weekly reminder.
2. Pre-Commit to Actions
Decide NOW what you'll do if score hits 72 (sell 50%? 80%?). Write it down. When emotions run high, follow your plan.
3. Use Position Sizing
Don't go all-in or all-out. Scale in/out gradually. This reduces regret if you're early or late.
4. Combine with Fundamentals
If macro conditions change dramatically (regulatory bans, exchange collapses), signals may need adjustment. Technical analysis + fundamental awareness = best results.
5. Accept Imperfection
You will not nail the exact top or bottom. That's fine. Capturing 60-80% of a move is a massive win. Perfection is the enemy of profit.
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